Diesel prices have climbed to levels the U.S. has never seen before, and President Donald Trump has backed a simple idea: Keep more American diesel in America.
But would restricting diesel exports actually lower pump prices?
At least one analysis says it could, and by a lot. The harder question is how long those savings would last.
According to AAA’s latest fuel-price data, the national average for diesel was $6.5019 per gallon on September 25. That’s just below the record of $6.5276 set three days earlier. A year ago, diesel averaged $3.689 per gallon.
Trump Says He Supports Restricting Diesel Exports
Trump publicly backed the idea on September 22.
“I’ve said let’s not send out the diesel. We make a lot of diesel … I’ve called for it,” Trump told reporters, according to Reuters.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at the same appearance that the administration was examining the feasibility of both a full and partial restriction on diesel exports.
That does not mean a full export ban is about to happen.
A day later, the White House denied a report that it was preparing a flat 90-day ban. Energy Secretary Chris Wright also said officials were considering other ways to keep more diesel in the U.S. without completely cutting off exports.
Wright has reportedly contacted major U.S. refiners about voluntarily reducing exports and putting more diesel into the domestic market instead.
Could That Actually Lower Diesel Prices?
Potentially, at least in the short term.
JPMorgan analysts modeled what would happen under a 30-day halt on U.S. diesel exports combined with the existing Jones Act waiver, which makes it easier to move fuel between U.S. ports.
Their estimate was eye-opening.
Retail diesel could fall to about $4.70 per gallon within 15 days, according to Bloomberg’s report on the JPMorgan analysis.
At today’s $6.50 national average, a 100-gallon diesel fill costs about $650.
At $4.70 per gallon, it would cost about $470.
That’s roughly $180 less on a 100-gallon fill-up.
For RVers with diesel motorhomes or trucks pulling large trailers, even part of that decline would be noticeable.
But the $4.70 figure is an analyst estimate based on a specific 30-day scenario. It is not a government forecast, a promised price, or an estimate of what would happen under every type of export restriction.
The U.S. Is Exporting a Lot of Diesel
The idea of keeping more diesel at home has gained attention partly because of how much fuel the U.S. is currently shipping overseas.
The Energy Information Administration’s latest weekly data shows the U.S. exported about 1.33 million barrels per day of distillate fuel during the week ending September 18. Distillates include diesel and heating oil.
At the same time, U.S. distillate inventories remain unusually tight.
EIA data shows inventories stood at about 107.4 million barrels on September 18.
Redirecting some exported fuel into the domestic market would therefore add supply at a time when inventories are already strained.
That’s the basic reason analysts believe restrictions could push diesel prices lower fairly quickly.
So What’s the Catch?
The United States cannot necessarily take more than a million barrels of diesel that currently leave the country each day and simply distribute all of it to gas stations.
A large share of U.S. refining capacity is concentrated along the Gulf Coast. Storage, pipelines, and shipping capacity limit how easily excess diesel can be moved to other parts of the country.
JPMorgan’s analysis found that a 30-day export halt could refill domestic inventories quickly. But once storage begins filling up, refiners could have a new problem: nowhere to put all of the diesel they are producing.
That could cause refineries to process less crude oil.
And refineries don’t just make diesel. They also produce gasoline, jet fuel, and other products.
Wright has made that same argument publicly. He told Reuters that if refiners run out of places to store diesel they cannot export, they could be forced to reduce refining activity, potentially putting upward pressure on gasoline and jet fuel prices.
JPMorgan analysts reached a similar conclusion. Their analysis suggests the sharp initial drop in diesel prices could be difficult to sustain once inventories fill and refining margins fall.
A Restriction May Look Different From a Full Ban
That may explain why the discussion in Washington has already moved beyond a simple yes-or-no export ban.
Trump has publicly supported restricting exports, while other administration officials have raised concerns about shutting them down completely.
The current discussion appears to include partial restrictions and voluntary reductions by refiners to keep more diesel in the U.S. without disrupting refinery operations.
Could It Lower Prices at the Pump?
Current analysis suggests that restricting diesel exports could initially lower U.S. diesel prices by keeping more fuel in the country.
The JPMorgan scenario suggests that decline could be substantial.
The longer-term effect is much less certain. If storage fills and refiners respond by cutting production, some of the initial diesel savings could disappear while gasoline or jet fuel supplies tighten.
For drivers currently paying around $6.50 a gallon for diesel, though, it explains why the idea is getting so much attention.
The U.S. is exporting more than a million barrels of distillate fuel each day while domestic diesel prices remain near record highs.
The debate now is not simply about keeping that fuel here. It is about how much can be redirected to American consumers without creating another supply problem somewhere else.
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