Diesel prices have crossed another line.
The national average reached a record $6.505 per gallon on September 20, according to AAA’s fuel price tracker. That’s up from $6.20 a week ago and $5.55 a month ago. A year ago, diesel averaged just $3.70 per gallon.
For RVers traveling in some parts of the country, the numbers are even higher. California’s statewide diesel average has reached $8.424 per gallon, also a record, while Washington is averaging $7.445.
And there isn’t a clear answer yet on how quickly prices will come back down.
Diesel has climbed nearly $1 in one month
The speed of the increase is almost as notable as the record itself.
AAA shows the national diesel average at $5.5477 on August 20. One month later, it is $6.5050. That’s an increase of roughly 96 cents per gallon.
The difference becomes substantial for diesel motorhomes and tow vehicles. At today’s national average, 100 gallons costs about $650.50. At California’s current average, the same amount costs about $842.
Another way to look at it: an RV getting 10 mpg would burn about 100 gallons on a 1,000-mile trip. That fuel would cost roughly $650 at today’s national average, compared with about $370 using last year’s national diesel price.
Why diesel is getting hit so hard
Expensive crude oil is part of the problem, but diesel has its own supply issues.
AAA reported on September 17 that crude oil was hovering around $100 per barrel amid continued disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, the global supply of refined diesel has tightened.
Reuters reported that attacks and other disruptions have reduced output from major refineries in Russia and the Middle East. Half of Russia’s largest diesel-producing refineries had reduced output following drone attacks as of mid-September, while Russia also restricted fuel exports.
U.S. inventories aren’t providing much of a cushion either. The latest Energy Information Administration data showed U.S. distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, at 107.9 million barrels for the week ending September 11, about 13% below the five-year average.
The government still expects prices to eventually fall
The EIA’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook projects some relief, but not immediately.
Its current forecast calls for retail diesel to average $5.55 per gallon during the fourth quarter of 2026 and about $4.40 during 2027. The agency expects crude oil prices to decline as disrupted production gradually returns and global inventories begin rebuilding.
That forecast has a catch.
The September EIA outlook was prepared before diesel reached a record $6.50, and the agency itself expects unusually tight diesel supplies to continue. It forecasts U.S. distillate inventories falling below 100 million barrels and remaining below recent five-year levels through much of 2027.
That means falling crude prices would not necessarily translate into an immediate return to cheap diesel.
Analysts say the outlook has become unusually difficult to predict
Recent oil-market analysis has become less confident as supply disruptions continue.
JPMorgan analysts told Reuters on September 17 that they no longer had a clear baseline scenario for where the oil market is headed. The bank estimated Brent crude’s underlying value at about $90 per barrel but said ongoing supply risks were keeping actual prices considerably higher.
Brent crude ended September 18 at about $104.87 per barrel. Analysts said a sustained improvement in oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could remove some of the risk premium now built into prices. Continued disruptions could have the opposite effect.
Executives from Shell and Equinor have also warned that inventories, alternate shipping routes and other buffers that helped energy markets absorb earlier disruptions are becoming less effective. Some infrastructure and supply problems could take into 2027 to fully resolve.
What RVers should watch now
The two numbers worth watching are crude oil prices and U.S. distillate inventories. More oil moving through disrupted shipping routes, recovering refinery production, and rebuilding diesel inventories would all put downward pressure on prices.
Until then, diesel RVers are facing fuel costs that were hard to imagine a year ago.
The national average has climbed from $3.70 to $6.50 in twelve months. In California, the statewide average is already above $8.40 per gallon.
For anyone planning a long diesel-powered RV trip, fuel has once again become a major part of the travel budget.
Write a comment