Buying 80 gallons of diesel costs about $213 more than it did a year ago, based on the national average. Prices are creeping back up, and a new international report warns that the supply squeeze could continue well into next year.
The recently announced Russian diesel deal is intended to bring relief. But damaged refineries and depleted fuel inventories could limit how much it affects pump prices.
Diesel Is Back Above $6.30 a Gallon
The national diesel average reached $6.317 a gallon on October 15, according to AAA’s fuel-price tracker. That compares with $6.300 the day before, $6.285 a week earlier, and $3.655 a year ago
Here’s how those prices affect the cost of buying fuel:
| Gallons purchased | Today | A year ago | Added cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 gallons | $253 | $146 | $107 |
| 80 gallons | $505 | $292 | $213 |
| 100 gallons | $632 | $366 | $266 |
Calculated from AAA’s national averages, rounded to the nearest dollar. Local prices vary.
Over a longer trip, the difference grows. For example, a 3,000-mile trip in a rig averaging 8 mpg would use 375 gallons. At today’s average, that fuel would cost roughly $2,369. At last year’s average, the same trip would have cost about $1,371, nearly $1,000 less.
Today’s average is still below the September 22 record of $6.528 per gallon. The recent increase has been modest, about three cents over the past week, but it comes on top of prices already far above last year’s.
Why the Supply Squeeze Could Last Into 2027
The International Energy Agency’s October oil market report, published October 14, points to disrupted Middle Eastern exports and Ukrainian drone strikes that damaged Russian refineries as factors reducing diesel supplies.
Global diesel exports in September were nearly 700,000 barrels per day below the same period last year. Net exports from Russia and the Middle East together fell by 1.3 million barrels per day. Higher shipments from the U.S. and China covered only part of that loss.
Inventories have been shrinking ahead of winter. The IEA expects higher refinery output to return the diesel market to a surplus in the first quarter of 2027, allowing stocks to rise.
That recovery is expected to fall short of replacing the fuel inventories lost during 2026. Replenishment beyond normal seasonal changes is unlikely before the second half of 2027, leaving the market tight even as production improves.
The agency also says easing Russia’s export restrictions is unlikely to substantially change the global supply balance. Limited refinery capacity restricts how much diesel Russia can produce for export.
What the Russian Diesel Deal Includes
President Donald Trump announced the agreement on October 9 in a Truth Social post. As Straight Arrow News reported, the plan called for an initial 300,000 tons of diesel, another 500,000 tons in November, and 1 million tons afterward. A further 3 million tons would depend on the condition of Russia’s refineries.
The full announced plan totals about 4.8 million tons, with deliveries spread over time and the largest portion dependent on refinery conditions. It covers both American and global markets, rather than allocating all of that fuel to the United States.
Treasury also issued General License 135 on October 9. It authorizes specified transactions involving the sale, delivery, offloading, and importation of Russian diesel, including imports into the U.S., through April 7, 2027.
Permission to move fuel is one part of the process. Producing the announced volumes and delivering them to buyers still depend on refinery operations and shipments.
What RV Owners Can Take From the Forecast
The IEA expects supplies to remain tight into 2027, but how that affects pump prices will depend on how production and deliveries recover.
For trip budgeting, the year-over-year difference is already substantial. A trip that uses 100 gallons costs roughly $266 more in diesel at today’s national average than it did last year.
Another way to look at it: every 25-cent change in the price per gallon changes an 80-gallon fuel bill by $20. That gives RV owners a straightforward way to adjust a travel budget as local prices change.
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