Diesel prices have climbed to nearly $6 a gallon nationwide, and the latest government forecast suggests high prices could continue into the winter.
The U.S. average reached about $5.94 per gallon this week, up 9 cents from the record $5.85 average reached Friday, according to Associated Press reporting.
For RVers driving diesel motorhomes or towing with diesel pickups, the increase is adding hundreds of dollars to longer trips.
Diesel supplies remain tight
The problem extends beyond the price of crude oil.
Global diesel supplies have tightened because refinery disruptions in Russia and the Middle East have reduced production. At the same time, U.S. refineries have little room to increase output.
Industry executives told Reuters that global diesel supplies are likely to remain tight through winter. Vitol CEO Russell Hardy estimated that Russia and the Middle East are producing about 4 million fewer barrels per day of refined products combined.
Those supply problems have pushed diesel refining margins to record levels. Reuters reported that the U.S. diesel crack spread, a measure of the difference between crude oil prices and the value of the diesel produced from it, recently reached more than $108 per barrel.
U.S. diesel inventories are expected to remain low
The latest forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration points to continued pressure on diesel supplies.
EIA expects U.S. inventories of distillate fuel oil, which includes diesel and heating oil, to fall below 100 million barrels this fall. The agency expects inventories to remain below the five-year low through the end of 2026 and for much of 2027.
Lower inventories leave the market with less cushion when demand increases or refinery problems reduce production.
Seasonal demand could add more pressure. Farmers use large amounts of diesel during the fall harvest, while colder weather increases demand for heating oil.
EIA currently forecasts retail diesel prices to average about $5.55 per gallon during the fourth quarter of 2026 before declining to an average of $4.40 in 2027.
Middle East disruptions remain a major factor
Fuel prices could change quickly if conditions in the Middle East improve, but oil shipments through the region remain well below normal.
Reuters reported Wednesday that roughly one-third of normal Gulf oil exports are still missing as shipping disruptions continue around the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude also climbed above $100 per barrel Wednesday as concerns about supplies increased.
EIA expects oil production to recover during 2027 and forecasts Brent crude to average about $74 per barrel next year. That projected recovery is one reason the agency expects diesel prices to eventually move lower.
Trump says prices could fall after the midterms
President Donald Trump offered a more optimistic timeline Wednesday.
Trump said oil prices that have risen during the conflict with Iran will likely remain elevated until after the November midterm elections, but he expects prices to fall afterward, according to the Associated Press.
His prediction depends heavily on how the conflict and resulting supply disruptions develop over the next several months.
For now, both EIA data and warnings from fuel-industry executives point to a tight diesel market through the winter.
At $5.94 per gallon, a diesel motorhome averaging 8 mpg would use about $743 worth of fuel to travel 1,000 miles. That makes fuel prices a much larger part of the budget for RVers planning fall and winter trips.
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