---
title: "RV Shipments Expected to Fall Below 300,000 for First Time Since 2012. Will Buyers See Lower Prices?"
url: "https://camperfaqs.com/rv-shipments-expected-to-fall-below-300000-for-first-time-since-2012"
author: "Tory Jon"
published: "2026-10-20T09:31:34-05:00"
modified: "2026-10-20T09:31:37-05:00"
---

# RV Shipments Expected to Fall Below 300,000 for First Time Since 2012. Will Buyers See Lower Prices?

New industry projections call for RV shipments to fall below 300,000 this year for the first time since 2012, according to [RV News](https://www.rvnews.com/rvia-forecasts-2026-wholesale-shipments-under-300000/). Next year’s outlook offers little sign of a quick rebound.

 

Buyers hoping that slowdown will bring lower prices have another factor to consider: dealers are also limiting how many new RVs they order.

 

## A Sharp Change From the Spring Outlook

 

In March, [RVIA was forecasting a third consecutive year of shipment growth](https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/2026-rv-wholesale-shipments-rise-modestly). Its president and CEO, Craig Kirby, pointed to improving economic conditions and expected momentum to build later in the year.

 

By October, that outlook had changed considerably. The [latest RV RoadSigns forecast](https://www.rvia.org/rv-roadsigns-quarterly-forecast), prepared by ITR Economics for RVIA, projects about 290,000 shipments for 2026, down roughly 15% from last year.

 

Wholesale shipments count new RVs manufacturers send to dealers. They measure how much inventory is entering dealerships, rather than how many RVs customers are buying.

 

Kirby cited inflation, elevated interest rates, higher fuel prices, and broader economic and geopolitical uncertainty as pressures on buyers. He said those conditions have weakened retail demand and made dealers more cautious about placing orders.

 

## Dealers Are Limiting the Inventory Buildup

 

Retail registrations have outpaced wholesale shipments over the past 12 months, according to [RVBusiness’s report on the forecast](https://rvbusiness.com/rv-shipments-to-stabilize-in-27-after-challenging-26/). RVIA describes industry inventory levels as disciplined.

 

A dealer with an RV that has sat for months may have reason to negotiate. However, keeping fewer replacements on the lot could reduce pressure to offer deep discounts across the board.

 

## A Recovery Could Take Well Into 2027

 

ITR expects annual shipments to slip slightly again next year, to about 285,000 units. Declines are projected to ease during the first half, with quarterly shipments returning to year-over-year growth in the second half.

 

Even that improvement would be measured against a weak stretch in 2026. A quarter that beats the previous year’s shipments can still leave the industry operating at a relatively low level.

 

RVIA expects controlled inventories and gradually improving economic conditions to help stabilize the market.

 

## What to Watch When Shopping

 

If you are shopping, ask how long the RV has been on the lot and compare written out-the-door quotes on the same model and floorplan. Check what is included in any advertised discount, including any requirement to finance through the dealership.

 

For a purchase involving financing or a trade-in, compare those terms separately from the RV’s price. A lower sticker price can be offset by financing costs or a weaker trade offer.